GOULBURN-MURRAY Water issued a sobering outlook for the new irrigation season yesterday, warning about the state of its catchments after consecutive dry months.
Northern Victoria's largest water authority will begin the season - as predicted last month - with zero allocations of irrigation water across all its systems.
And it's not only irrigators who face an uncertain future.
The outlook is also grim for Bendigo residents, who rely on the Goulburn system for up to 20 gigalitres to flow through the Superpipe.
Yesterday G-MW reported the amount of water available for future allocation dates would depend on a winter reversal of a five-month pattern of dismally low inflows.
If dry conditions continued, the Murray system would have no allocation for the entire season while the Goulburn system can expect about 14 per cent allocations by February, it said.
A repeat of last year's inflows, when above-average rain fell in two of the five key inflow months, was expected to enable the Murray to have 30 per cent allocation and 40 per cent in the Goulburn system.
This would mean Coliban Water would have only up to 8000 megalitres available from its entitlements to send down the Superpipe to supply Bendigo.
Coliban Water service delivery manager Neil Burns said Bendigo used about 9000 megalitres a year and although the Superpipe provided a breathing space, higher inflows were still needed.
"At the end of the day we all rely on runoff and for that we need the rain," he said.
"I think people have to continue to think very seriously about sustainability and how they exist on water."
G-MW planning and environment manager Graeme Hannan said the severity of the situation would depend on inflows in the next few months.
"The critical months are July, August and September," he said.
"And although there is the potential for a turnaround in October, if it is not raining by the middle of August we will be looking at some serious shortages.
"We are obliged to inform our irrigators there is the potential for some very serious conditions ahead.
"While there is a high probability there will be some allocations, the time and magnitude of those are entirely dependent on inflows."
Mr Hannan said although most storages were at higher levels than last year, reserves in the Goulburn and Murray systems contained about 12 per cent or 190 gigalitres of carryover or privately owned water.
But much worse, he said, were the largely dry catchments and absence of any significant inflows after below-average rainfall in May and June.